Economic Outlook

What will the global economy look like in the wake of United States tariffs? How will the trade relationship between China and the United States progress in the next year? How do economists foresee the ongoing impact of the crisis in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war on global economic relations?

On January 28, 2026, Chicago Booth professors Veronica Guerrieri, Chang-Tai Hsieh, and Luigi Zingales examined these questions and issues raised by the rapid growth of artificial intelligence, the use of trade policy as a tool of coercion, China’s shifting position in the economy, and the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on financial markets, among other considerations. The virtual conversation was moderated by Romesh Vaitilingam, writer, consultant, and editor-in-chief of the Economic Observatory. Watch the discussion. 

How will Fed policy evolve and will we be able to avoid inflation, stagflation, or recession? How will tariffs, domestic policies, and policy uncertainty affect economic activity? How will AI affect investment, productivity, and the workforce? 

On December 9, 2025, in Chicago, Yueran Ma, Raghuram Rajan, and Randall S. Kroszner discussed what might lie ahead for the global economy in 2026, in a conversation moderated by Hal Weitzman. On December 10, in New York, Ma and Rajan joined Brent Neiman, with the discussion moderated by Ray Iwanowski, MBA '97. Read the event highlights.