The Sixth Professor B. Peter Pashigian Memorial Lecture

Econometrics and Statistics Colloquium
Applied Economics Workshops
Marketing Workshops
Workshop in Organizations and Markets
Workshop in Behavioral Science
Workshop in Theory of Organizations
Workshop in Operations/Management Science

May 13, 2009: 3:30 PM - 5:00 PM

"Forecasting the Cost of Health Care in 2040" One of the most important debates among health economists in rich nations is whether advances in biotechnology will spare their health care systems from a financial crisis. We must consider that prevalence rates of chronic diseases declined during the twentieth century and that this rate of decline has accelerated. However, health care costs may continue to increase even as the age of onset of chronic diseases is delayed, because the proportion of a cohort living to late ages will increase. The accelerating decline in the prevalence of chronic diseases during the course of the twentieth century supports the proposition that increases in life expectancy during the twenty-first century will be fairly large, but the effect on health care in the U.S. will be modest. The income elasticity for health services is calculated at 1.6, meaning that income expenditures on health care in the U.S. are likely to rise from a current level of about 15 percent to about 29 percent of GDP in 2040

Where

University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Harper Center
Rm 104
Chicago, Illinois

Cost

No Charge

Speaker Profiles

John P. Gloud (Speaker)
The Steven G. Rothmeier Professor and Distinguished Service Professor of Economics, Chicago Booth

Robert W. Fogel (Speaker)
Charles R. Walgreens Dist. Service Prof. of American Institutions, Chicago Booth

Questions

Barbara Birthwright 

773.702.1913