How Well Do You Know Your Friend?
You think you know your friend well—the kinds of things they enjoy doing? Well, think again. In this exhibit, you’ll get a glimpse into the consequences of overconfidence.
In this exhibit, you’ll play a game with a friend or partner. One person (the responder) marks down how much they enjoy different activities. Then the other person (the guesser) tries to predict the responder’s answers. The format will feel similar to other question-and-answer games, but the results may surprise you.
Images from the Exhibit
When we have a strong impression of someone, it’s easy to mistake general intuition for detailed knowledge about their specific beliefs and preferences. For example, thinking that someone is outdoorsy is not the same as knowing how much they like camping in particular. Settling for “close enough” is often fine, but it can trick us into thinking we have all the right answers.
The Science behind the Experiment
Overconfidence is one of the most pervasive and dangerous biases because it keeps us from knowing our limits, leads us to make rash decisions, and prevents us from recognizing our mistakes.
- Eyal, T., Steffel, M., & Epley, N. (2018). Perspective mistaking: Accurately understanding the mind of another requires getting perspective, not taking perspective. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 114(4), 547.
- Klayman, J., Soll, J. B., Gonzalez-Vallejo, C., & Barlas, S. (1999). Overconfidence: It depends on how, what, and whom you ask. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 79(3), 216-247.
- Kardas, M., & O’Brien, E. (2018). Easier seen than done: Merely watching others perform can foster an illusion of skill acquisition. Psychological Science, 29(4), 521–36.
- Massey, C., & Thaler, R. (2005). Overconfidence vs. market efficiency in the National Football League. NBER Working Paper No. w11270.
- Thaler, R. H., & Klein, D. G. (2010). The Overconfidence Problem in Forecasting. New York Times, August 21, 2010.
Explore More Mindworks Exhibits
Are You a Risk Taker?
Every day we make choices that involve risks and rewards. How can we better understand the ways our minds process these trade-offs?
Are You a Risk Taker?
The Power of Regrets
We all make mistakes, but science can help predict the choices we’re most likely to regret – and how to avoid them.
The Power of Regrets
What Feels True?
Details usually make things feel realistic and true. What happens when details play tricks on our decision-making?
What Feels True?
How Do Our Eyes Fool Us?
The brain does a lot very quickly—usually very well. But in some situations, things get weird, and we can see how the mind takes shortcuts.
How Do Our Eyes Fool Us?
What’s in a Face?
Explore the power of first impressions in our unique photo booth, where you can see and experience your own face in new ways.
What’s in a Face?
What Shapes Your Choices?
Our beliefs and preferences drive our decisions, right? Our actions tell a different story. Choice architecture can help align them.
What Shapes Your Choices?
Design Your Best Life
Apply insights from choice architecture to help achieve your goals.
Design Your Best LifeShare This Page
Tell your friends and family about this Mindworks exhibit on social media.