Among the comments of the overwhelming majority who agreed on the need for random testing, several experts noted the importance of better information.
Christopher Udry of Northwestern warned, “The lack of reliable information on the distribution of the virus makes decision-making riskier.” Larry Samuelson of Yale said, “Lockdowns should be ended scientifically rather than blindly; to do so we must know the state of the population, which requires testing.” Robert Hall of Stanford added, “We need one survey of a few thousand people with repeated testing and clinical observation, to clear up a lot of mysteries.”
William Nordhaus of Yale was emphatic: “This is one of the most important holes in current policy. Absolutely critical. Some firms, hospitals can do while waiting for government.” Aaron Edlin of Berkeley explained, “Testing could help us understand prevalence and mortality risk, both overall and by age and condition.”
James Stock of Harvard referred to his recent paper on random testing to inform critical policy choices, which concluded, “decisions that could save millions of lives or prevent an economic catastrophe with effects that will ripple for decades hinge on the lack of data to estimate a single parameter—how widespread this virus really is.”
Several experts mention testing for antibodies as well as infections: Robert Shimer of the University of Chicago said, “Antibody testing on a random sample of the population would also be very useful.” Bengt Holmstrom of MIT concurred: “Foremost we need antibody testing to judge the path of the pandemic.”
Of the small minority of panelists who said they were uncertain or disagreed with the need for random testing, David Cutler of Harvard commented, “We need to make sure we can test symptomatic people.” Jose Scheinkman of Columbia said, “Not while asymptomatic health workers treating COVID-19 patients cannot be tested,” referencing a New York City testing program.
Markus Brunnermeier of Princeton argued, “There must be smarter ways to correct for the bias than pure random testing and not using limited resources to people who need it most.” Angus Deaton of Princeton, who strongly agreed with the statement, added the caveat: “Population testing is the point. We should, ideally, test everyone. Random is not really the point.”
Increased testing capacity to prepare for ending lockdowns