Understanding the economic, political, and social conditions that make the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) attractive globally could help efforts to predict and prevent terrorism. But some of the key assumptions about what prompts people to join this particular group are wrong, argue Efraim Benmelech of Northwestern University and Esteban Klor of Hebrew University.
Some researchers contend that there’s a relationship between poverty and jihadism. Paris School of Economics’ Thomas Piketty proposed in a 2015 op-ed that more-equitable social systems would help stymie ISIS recruiting, while research on the economics of conflict has long linked political unrest with poor economic conditions.
But Benmelech and Klor, in what they state is the first systematic analysis of the link between ISIS and economic, political, and social conditions, say many ISIS recruits come from rich countries, where income inequality is relatively low and political institutions are highly developed. “Poor economic conditions do not drive participation in ISIS,” the researchers write. The likelihood that someone would join ISIS in a given country rises where prosperity is widespread and political dissent is well tolerated.
Where ISIS fighters come from
On this map, countries in darker blue have produced a higher ratio of ISIS foreign fighters, relative to the size of their Muslim populations. Hover over the map for specific country-level data.