Edmon de Haro
Is Europe Falling Behind the US?
- August 25, 2026
- CBR - Clark Center Panels
In his foreword to “The Future of European Competitiveness,” the comprehensive economic policy roadmap for the European Union released in 2024 and often referred to as the Draghi report, former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi decried a growing economic disparity between the EU and the United States. “Across different metrics, a wide gap in GDP has opened up between the EU and the US,” he writes. “On a per capita basis, real disposable income has grown almost twice as much in the US as in the EU since 2000.”
Europe’s economic policymaking is often criticized as overly regulative and suppressive of innovation. But is Europe really losing ground to the US? Chicago Booth’s Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets polled its European panel of economic experts.
Pol Antràs, Harvard
“This is a bit too vague for me to answer definitely. The question is about changes, not levels, and medians, not averages. Hard! I imagine the answer is yes for most European countries, but no for a few Eastern European countries (Poland, Romania) that have grown A LOT since 2001.”
Response: Uncertain
Christian Leuz, Chicago Booth
“There is relative decline for the median citizen or household, but it is modest when income is adjusted for taxes, inflation, and purchasing power parity. It is more pronounced using GDP per capita at market exchange rates or when comparing the top of the income distribution. There is also not a decline against all countries.”
Response: Agree
Carol Propper, Imperial College London
“Median is different to mean. US median income stagnated post-Great Financial Crisis until around 2018, then rose post-COVID. Former communist bloc EU countries’ median income grew considerably during the last 25 years.”
Response: Disagree
Botond Kőszegi, University of Bonn
“The median European citizen does not live in the highest-income countries.”
Response: Disagree
Lubos Pastor, Chicago Booth
“Besides lower incomes, Europeans also have less personal comfort: smaller homes, no air conditioning, fewer cars, more red tape. They tend to work less and compete less, which can be viewed as a plus or minus depending on how much you like your job and how competitive you are.”
Response: Disagree
Silvana Tenreyro, London School of Economics
“Going beyond real incomes, Europe seems to perform better when it comes to other indicators relevant for well-being, including health (e.g., life expectancy), violence (e.g., homicide or overdose death rates), etc.”
Response: Agree
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