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Can Washington Tame Home Prices?

Median house prices in the United States have risen almost 24 percent since the end of 2019 and almost 140 percent since the turn of the century, making home affordability a hot political topic. In January, President Donald Trump announced two measures aimed at making home purchases more affordable. One was the intention to bar big investment firms from purchasing single-family homes, an idea that has also gained traction in Congress; the other was a directive for the government-controlled mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion of mortgage-backed bonds. 

Will these steps make homeownership substantially more affordable? Chicago Booth’s Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets polled its US panel of economic experts.

Fiona Scott Morton, Yale
“Larger owners may be more likely to use tools enabling algorithmic collusion. They may also deploy sophisticated strategies to create concentration in markets (e.g., university campus neighborhoods) that escape antitrust scrutiny because they are small but have inelastic demand.”
Response: Agree

Chad Syverson, Chicago Booth
“Institutions own about 1 of every 300 single-family houses in the US. Removing a single potential buyer in 0.33 percent of sales will 
not have any aggregate effect.”
Response: Strongly disagree

Christopher Udry, Northwestern
“Maybe a small, probably temporary effect. Doesn’t address constraints to increasing supply.”
Response: Disagree

Markus Brunnermeier, Princeton
“In the medium run, it would translate in higher housing prices. Relaxing zoning restrictions would be more effective.”
Response: Uncertain

Kenneth Judd, Stanford
“This is a tiny proportion of the assets of the same risk class as mortgages.”
Response: Strongly disagree

Larry Samuelson, Yale
“Two hundred billion is a small fraction of the market, and the effect is likely to be swamped by other market forces.”
Response: Disagree

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