Richard Thaler Weighs in on Baseball Debate

The Boys of Summer could learn something from Ralph and Dorothy Keller Distinguished Service Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics Richard Thaler’s course on decision-making according to a New York Times article. According to the Times, baseball is currently the subject of a debate about whether or not it can be reduced to a stack of data, statistics and analysis. Traditionalists wish to preserve the view that it’s a matter of hunches and human instinct.

While team managers and scouts insist their experience and knowledge are key to making decisions about the game, Thaler comes down on the side of the “rationalists”. “When a computer model is given the same information as an expert,” Thaler says “the model; almost always comes out on top.”

Baseball managers aren’t the only ones who could benefit. The NFL draft costs team’s lots of money—much of which is spent on high round picks that don’t warrant costly contacts.

Thaler and a colleague have a study under review for publication that looks at how people make economic decisions. They looked at draft picks by the New England Patriots and found their value increases as the rounds proceed. Tom Brady, their quarterback, was a sixth-round draft choice and had the best record as a starter.

Learn more about the baseball debate. Read more about the NFL pricing study.