Professor Robert Fogel Looks at the Economic Relationship between Prosperity and Health

In the last 400 years, humans have increased their height and muscle by 50 percent and doubled their life spans. In his new book, Nobel laureate Robert W. Fogel, Charles R. Walgreen Distinguished Service Professor of American Institutions, explains why this physiological change is the leading factor in our increased prosperity.

Fogel discussed his book, The Escape from Hunger and Premature Death, on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation radio program Counterpoint. The program looked at several instances throughout history that illustrated the economic repercussions of health:

• Around 1700, most of the population died before the age of five. In cities, that figure could be as high as 50 percent, mortality rate not even seen in contemporary Third World countries.
• In 18th Century Britain, 20 percent of the population was too weak to work. Fogel points outs that they only had enough food to be able to walk and beg.
• The 50 percent increase in physical size has led to a 50 percent increase in efficiency. Fogel measures the proportion of energy (calories) consumed available for work. In early times, people only had 600-700 calories per day to devote to work compared with 2,000 calories today.
• As we live longer, fewer hours are needed to fulfill basic necessities such as food, clothing and shelter. In the 19th Century, 1,800 hours were needed to earn food for a family. Now it only takes 160 hours. That translates to 90 percent of income that is needed to support a family then versus 30 percent today.
• In the early part of the 20th Century, people were much sicker and spent 3 percent of GNP on health care. That figure is 15% today and Fogel predicts the number will be 21% by the year 2030. He explains that patients in wealthier countries want more health services that drive up costs. But not all that cost is in actual health care. Some of the increase is due to cable TV and private rooms.