Nobel Laureate Robert Fogel sees positive future for China’s economy

Robert W. Fogel, Nobel Laureate and Charles R. Walgreen Distinguished Service Professor of American Institutions, spoke at the 2005 Annual Conference of the Chinese Economists Society. The focus of the three-day event held at the end of June in Chongqingwas “ Sustainable Economic Growth in China: Investing in Human Capital and Environment.”

Fogel, who heads the Center for Population Economics at the GSB, predicted annual growth of at least eight percent for the next 35 years. Countering skepticism over China’s burgeoning economic growth, Fogel indicated he felt growth had actually been “understated.” Besides the service sector, he noted the education and health sectors which have been very robust, have not been factored into China’s GDP growth.

Examining China’s goal of US$3000 per capita GDP by the year 2020, Fogel stated the target “was well within the experience of the rapidly growing Southeast Asian economies.” The road to China’s economic growth, however, was not without pitfalls, observed Fogel. Citing several significant issues, Fogel felt they would be successfully addressed.

An article on Fogel’s remarks can be found at China Economic Net.