AS THE CENTURY DRAWS TO A CLOSE, we asked current and former Chicago faculty members what they consider the most important event of the past 100 years and what forces will influence the coming decades. From the fall of the Berlin Wall to the discovery of DNA, these are the events that have shaped our lives.
Marvin Zonis
Professor of Business Administration
A shot in Sarajevo I would say the most significant event of the 20th century was
the assassination by Serbian nationalists in June 1914 of the
heir to the throne of the Austro-Hungarian empire, Archduke Ferdinand,
on that bridge in Sarajevo. World War I followed directly. That
in turn resulted in the collapse of three empires: the Austro-Hungarian,
the Ottoman, and the czarist. Their collapses were followed in
turn by the triumph of Bolshevism and the rise of Adolf Hitler
and Nazi Germany. World War II followed directly, as did the subjugation
of the peoples of Russia and Eastern Europe and the spread of
communism to China and Asia. The United States adopting global
responsibilities and its emergence as the sole superpower at the
conclusion of the 20th century were direct results.
Rising China The greatest event of the 21st century is likely to be the emergence
of China as a superpower. Its economy will grow larger than that
of the United States–although it will remain scientifically poorer
on a per capita basis. It will develop a military capability that
will allow it to project power over vast distances, certainly
as far as Europe and the United States. It will reintegrate Taiwan.
The most dramatic question of the next century will be whether
or not China absorbs Hong Kong after the 50-year “one countrytwo
systems” formula expires or whether Hong Kong absorbs China. The
most important challenge for U.S. foreign policy will be to manage
the rise of China. It can be argued that the failures of the 20th
century stemmed from the inability of the established powers to
manage the emergence of those states with aspirations to great
power status, notably Germany and Japan. The leading candidate
for that role for the next several decades will be China.
George Shultz
Former Professor of Industrial Relations and Dean; Former Secretary
of State
Freedom and democracy The most important development of the last century was the spread of freedom and democracy in the world. At first it was very gradual, but during the postWorld War II era, it really gained momentum. And now the movement toward freedom is unmistakable, although it often appears to take two steps forward and one step back. And, obviously, there have been breathtaking changes from a technological standpoint. One of the underlying reasons for a lot of the new technology is the greater number of free people around the world.
Enduring institutions When you look at what people thought might happen in this century, and compare it with what has happened, you understand how difficult it is to make accurate predictions. I think that is because no one could have fully anticipated the stunning changes brought about by new technology. The information revolution has had a profound effect on science, engineering, business capability, and even the way diplomacy is conducted. One thing I can predict with certainty is that centers of learning and centers of faith will still be around 100 years from now and will still be going strong. That won’t change, and neither will the quest for freedom and democracy.
Sam Peltzman
Sears Roebuck Professor of Economics and Financial Services
The Great Wars As the cultural event of the century, I would pick World War I, because it marked the end of romanticism and the beginning of modernism. In economics, the big event was the Great Depression, which represented the triumph of big government. In politics, the big events were the demise of the Soviet Union, which marked the end of socialism, and World War II, which demonstrated the downside to technical progress.
Aging and the end of big government Significant events of the next century will be the continued “graying” of populations in developed countries with the ensuing political and economic repercussions and the end of big government as we have known it in this century.
James Schrager
Clinical Professor of Entrepreneurship and Strategic Management
Mass production The most important event of the 20th century was the successful mass production of automobiles, first proven to be operational by Clarence W. Avery in April 1914 at the Ford Motor Company assembly plant in Highland Park, Michigan. The increase in quality and output was coupled with dramatically lower costs. Other products soon applied the assembly line magic. The automobile and related products remain the largest single industry today, and mass production is the engine that drives our economy.
Genetic medicine The most important event of the next century will be using the human genetic code to fight disease at the cellular level. This breakthrough will rival the use of general anesthesia (developed in the 1840s) in its effect on increasing the quality and length of life.
Gary Eppen
Ralph and Dorothy Keller Distinguished Service Professor of Operations
Management; Deputy Dean for Part-Time M.B.A. Programs
Fall of the Berlin Wall If I had to pick one event, it would be the fall of the Berlin Wall. It was the watershed event concerning how people will govern themselves. Even in the few short years since the fall, the lives of millions of individuals have been effected.
Emerging Africa The emergence of Africa as a player on the international scene will be a significant event in the next century. Leading countries should move from internal conflict to stability and a role in the international community. The opportunities are large, and eventually leaders will arise to take advantage of them.
Austan Goolsbee
Associate Professor of Economics
Rise of computers In April 1973 at Xerox Palo Alto Research Center (PARC), the first Alto personal computer became operational. To demonstrate it was working, the researchers put on the screen a graphic of the [Sesame Street character] Cookie Monster holding a cookie in one hand and the letter C in the other. The development of the computer was the most important event of the 20th century, changing manufacturing, information delivery, the military, and almost every other aspect of life. The Cookie Monster episode is as good a moment as any to symbolize the rise of computers. Xerox PARC was responsible for most of the personal computer as we know it, including graphical interfaces, laser printers, networking, and the beginnings of the Internet. I think the Internet or perhaps some more advanced, future manifestation of it will be the most significant development of the 21st century. In that sense, the Cookie Monster episode might get my vote for the most important event of the next century, too.
Roman Weil
V. Duane Rath Professor of Accounting
The shadow of Stalin, Hitler, and Churchill Three circumstances joined in an intimate connection to make the
most significant event of the 20th century: the rise of Joseph
Stalin, followed by the ascendancy of Hitler, followed by Churchill’s
return to power. Roosevelt’s role in the 20th century was secondary
to these three figures. Together, Stalin, Hitler, and Churchill
affected politics, economics, and political geography from the
mid 1920s through at least 1989. That’s a long shadow.
Robert Fogel
Charles R. Walgreen Distinguished Service Professor of American
Institutions;
1993 Nobel Laureate
DNA discovery The event of the century was the discovery of DNA because it revolutionized our capacity to control biological processes.
Rise of leisure A major event of the next century will be the increase of leisure from less than 20 percent of adult lifetime discretionary hours in 1900 to over 75 percent of lifetime discretionary hours by 2050. By midcentury it will be possible to buy the annual consumption of food, clothing, and shelter for a typical family with just 125 hours of the labor of the household head.