Faculty & Research

Neale Mahoney

Assistant Professor of Economics and Neubauer Family Faculty Fellow

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5807 South Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637

Neale Mahoney is an Assistant Professor of Economics and Neubauer Family Faculty Fellow at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and a Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Professor Mahoney is an applied microeconomist with an interest in health insurance and consumer credit markets. His research has been published in the American Economic Review and has received coverage in the New York Times and Wall Street Journal. He has been awarded a National Tax Association Outstanding Doctoral Dissertation Award (first runner-up) and the Lamport Prize for the best undergraduate thesis in Economics at Brown University.

Before joining Chicago Booth, Mahoney was a Robert Wood Johnson Fellow in Health Policy Research at Harvard University. He received a Ph.D. and M.A. in Economics from Stanford University and a Sc.B. in Applied Mathematics-Economics from Brown University. He has worked as an Associate at McKinsey & Company and on Health Care Reform for the Obama Administration.


2014 - 2015 Course Schedule

Number Name Quarter
42001 Competitive Strategy 2015 (Spring)

REVISION: Externalities and Taxation of Supplemental Insurance: A Study of Medicare and Medigap
Date Posted: Dec  04, 2014
Most health insurance policies use cost-sharing to reduce excess utilization. The purchase of supplemental insurance can blunt the impact of this cost-sharing, potentially increasing utilization and exerting a negative externality on the primary insurance provider. This paper estimates the effect of private Medigap supplemental insurance on public Medicare spending using Medigap premium discontinuities in local medical markets that span state boundaries. Using administrative data on the universe of Medicare beneficiaries, we estimate that Medigap increases an individual’s Medicare spending by 22.2%. We find that the take-up of Medigap is price sensitive with an estimated demand elasticity of -1.8. Using these estimates, we calculate that a 15% tax on Medigap premiums would generate combined tax revenue and cost savings of $12.9 billion annually. A Pigouvian tax would generate combined annual savings of $31.6 billion.

REVISION: Imperfect Competition in Selection Markets
Date Posted: Nov  15, 2014
Standard policies to correct market power and selection can be misguided when these two forces co-exist. Using a calibrated model of employer-sponsored health insurance, we show that the risk adjustment commonly used by employers to offset adverse selection often reduces the amount of high-quality coverage and thus social surplus. Conversely, in a model of subprime auto lending calibrated to Einav, Jenkins and Levin (2012), realistic levels of competition among lenders generate a significant oversupply of credit, implying greater market power is desirable. These results motivate a general model of symmetric imperfect competition in selection markets that parameterizes the degree of both market power and selection. We use graphical price-theoretic reasoning to comprehensively characterize the interaction between selection and imperfect competition. Our results imply that in selection markets four principles of the United States Horizontal Merger Guidelines are often reversed.

New: A Simple Framework for Estimating Consumer Benefits from Regulating Hidden Fees
Date Posted: Oct  03, 2014
Policymakers are increasingly turning to regulation to reduce hidden or non-salient fees. Yet the overall consumer benefits from these polices are uncertain because firms may increase other prices to offset lost fee revenue. We show that the extent to which firms offset reduced hidden fee revenue is determined by a simple equation that combines two “sufficient statistics,” which can be estimated or calibrated in a wide range of settings: (i) a parameter that captures the degree of market competitiveness and (ii) a parameter that captures the salience of the hidden fee. We provide corroborating evidence for this approach by drawing upon evidence on the effect of fee regulation under the 2009 CARD Act. We also illustrate the applicability of our approach by using the framework to assess a hypothetical regulation of airline baggage fees.

New: Does Privatized Health Insurance Benefit Patients or Producers? Evidence from Medicare Advantage
Date Posted: Sep  03, 2014
The debate over privatizing Medicare stems from a fundamental disagreement about whether privatization would primarily generate consumer surplus for individuals or producer surplus for insurance companies and health care providers. This paper investigates this question by studying an existing form of privatized Medicare called Medicare Advantage (MA). Using difference-in-differences variation brought about by payment floors established by the 2000 Benefits Improvement and Protection Act, we find that for each dollar in increased capitation payments, MA insurers reduced premiums to individuals by 45 cents and increased the actuarial value of benefits by 8 cents. Using administrative data on the near-universe of Medicare beneficiaries, we show that advantageous selection into MA cannot explain this incomplete pass-through. Instead, our evidence suggests that insurer market power is an important determinant of the division of surplus, with premium pass-through rates of 13% in the least ...

REVISION: Regulating Consumer Financial Products: Evidence from Credit Cards
Date Posted: Aug  28, 2014
We analyze the effectiveness of consumer financial regulation by considering the 2009 Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure (CARD) Act. We use a panel data set covering 160 million credit card accounts and a difference-in-differences research design that compares changes in outcomes over time for consumer credit cards, which were subject to the regulations, to changes for small business credit cards, which the law did not cover. We estimate that regulatory limits on credit card fees reduced overall borrowing costs by an annualized 1.6% of average daily balances, with a decline of more than 5.3% for consumers with FICO scores below 660. We find no evidence of an offsetting increase in interest charges or a reduction in the volume of credit. Taken together, we estimate that the CARD Act saved consumers $11.9 billion per year. We also analyze a nudge that disclosed the interest savings from paying off balances in 36 months rather than making minimum payments. We ...

New: Competition Policy in Selection Markets
Date Posted: Aug  23, 2014
Selection markets, like insurance and finance, where the value of customers depends on their identity, create fundamental challenges for competition policy. Competition is often harmful in these markets either by creating socially excessive supply or leading to degradation of product quality. Standard indicators used to gauge policies, such as upward pricing pressure, are also often mis-calibrated in these settings. We summarize for a policy audience and draw competition policy conclusions from two recent papers on the interaction between competition policy and selection, using calibrations to sub-prime auto lending and health insurance.

New: Do Expiring Budgets Lead to Wasteful Year-End Spending? Evidence from Federal Procurement
Date Posted: Sep  27, 2013
Many organizations have budgets that expire at the end of the fiscal year. Faced with uncertainty over future spending demands, these organizations have an incentive to build up a rainy day fund over the first part of the year. If demand does not materialize, they must rush to spend these resources on low quality projects at the end of the year. We test these predictions using data on procurement spending by the U.S. federal government. Using contract-level data on a near-universe of federal contracts, we document that spending in the last week of the year is 4.9 times higher than the rest-of-the-year weekly average. Using a newly available dataset that tracks the quality of $130 billion in information technology (I.T.) projects, we show that quality scores for year-end projects are 2.2 to 5.6 times more likely to be below the central value. Allowing agencies to roll over unused funding into the subsequent year can improve efficiency. We calibrate a dynamic model of spending and show ...

New: Bankruptcy as Implicit Health Insurance
Date Posted: Sep  23, 2013
This paper examines the implicit health insurance households receive from the ability to declare bankruptcy. Exploiting cross-state and within-state variation in asset exemption law, I show that uninsured households with greater seizable assets make higher out-of-pocket medical payments, conditional on the amount of care received. In turn, I find that households with greater wealth-at-risk are more likely to hold health insurance. The implicit insurance from bankruptcy distorts the insurance coverage decision. Using a microsimulation model, I calculate that the optimal Pigovian penalties are similar on average to the penalties under the Affordable Care Act (ACA).

New: Pricing and Welfare in Health Plan Choice
Date Posted: Aug  18, 2008
Prices in government and employer-sponsored health insurance markets only partially reflect insurers' expected costs of coverage for different enrollees. This can create inefficient distortions when consumers self-select into plans. We develop a simple model to study this problem and estimate it using new data on small employers. In the markets we observe, the welfare loss compared to the feasible efficient benchmark is around 2-11% of coverage costs. Three-quarters of this is due to restriction