The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
February 15, 2013: 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM
Nate Silver is a statistician and political forecaster for The New York Times; he became a national sensation in the United States when his predictions during the 2008 presidential election trumped most mainstream polls. He founded FiveThirtyEight.com in March, 2008 and is responsible for developing its electoral forecasts. Silver will be speaking at the Scholes Forum on February 15.
450 N Cityfront Plaza Drive
5:30 PM-6:00 PM: Registration / Check-In
6:00 PM-7:00 PM: Lecture / Q&A
Register By Email
Register By Phone: 7737026324
Advanced registration is required (cost is $5). If you are paying with a credit card, please register online.
If you would like to pay with cash or check at the door, please email Jennifer
Space is limited and we do anticipate
that this event will sell out. Please register early.
The Myron Scholes Global Markets Forum brings business leaders, policy makers, and distinguished academics to address the Chicago community on topics of current interest. These events are open to the public but do require advance registration.
Nate Silver (Speaker)
Nate Silver has become today's leading statistician through his innovative analyses of political polling. He first gained national attention during the 2008 presidential election, when he correctly predicted the results of the primaries and the presidential winner in 49 states. Today, Nate runs the award-winning political website FiveThirtyEight.com, where he publishes a running forecast of current elections and hot-button issues. Now published in the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight.com has made Nate the public face of statistical analysis and political forecasting.
His new book, The Signal and The Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail — But Some Don't, is a New York Times bestseller. Data-based predictions underpin a growing sector of critical fields, from political polling and hurricane watches to the stock market and even the war on terror. That means it's important to ask — what kind of predictions can we trust? What methods do the most reliable forecasters use? What sorts of things can be predicted — and what can't? Nate takes us on a tour of modern prediction science, uncovering a surprising connection among humility, uncertainty and good results. It's an essential read for anyone interested in how data can be used to understand the future.
Before he came to politics, Nate established his credentials as an analyst of baseball statistics. He developed a widely acclaimed system called PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm), which predicts player performance, career development, and seasonal winners and losers. He is the author of a series of books on baseball statistics, which include Mind Game, Baseball Between the Numbers, and It Ain't Over 'til It's Over. Nate has written for ESPN.com, Sports Illustrated, Slate, New York Sun, New York Times. His work has been reported in such publications as the New York Times, Newsweek, Huffington Post, and Vanity Fair.
Nate Silver has been honored by a series of accolades, from Time's 100 Most Influential People of 2009 to Rolling Stone's 100 Agents of Change. FiveThirtyEight.com won Best Political Coverage in the 2008 Weblog Awards.